Risk of Ruin Calculator: What Are Your Chances of Going Bust?
Jake WilfredHere’s a question most craps players never ask themselves: what are the actual chances I walk away with nothing?
The Risk of Ruin Calculator answers that honestly. Plug in your bankroll, bet type, bet size, and session length. Get back a percentage that represents your probability of going bust.
- Risk of ruin is the probability of losing your entire session bankroll
- Higher bet sizes relative to bankroll increase bust probability dramatically
- The calculator factors in bet type, house edge, variance, and session length
- A 5% or lower risk of ruin is a reasonable target for recreational players
How to Use It
Input your starting bankroll, select a bet type, enter your standard wager, and set how many rolls or hours you plan to play. The tool runs the math and gives you a bust probability.
It also shows you how adjusting any single variable shifts that number up or down.
What Drives Risk of Ruin
Three factors dominate. First, the ratio of your bet size to your bankroll. Betting $25 with a $200 bankroll is far riskier than betting $10 with $500. Second, the house edge of your chosen bets. High-edge proposition bets accelerate losses. Third, session length. The longer you play, the more the math works against you.
A $10 Pass Line player with a $300 bankroll over 200 rolls has roughly an 8% chance of going bust. Bump that to $25 bets with the same $300? The bust probability jumps above 30%.
Using Risk of Ruin with Your Strategy
This pairs naturally with the Bankroll Calculator and the Session Planner. Together, they give you a complete pre-game picture: how much to bring, when to stop, and what the odds are of going home empty-handed.
Smart players at Vegas tables don’t just think about winning. They manage the downside first.
If your risk of ruin is above 15%, either lower your bet size or increase your bankroll. Chasing a lower number here gives you a much better shot at having a full, enjoyable session.
Best Online Craps Casinos (Last Updated May 2026)
Risk of Ruin Simulator FAQs
For recreational players, aim for 5% or lower. That means you’ll walk away with money 19 out of 20 sessions on average. Aggressive players might accept 10-15%, but anything above that makes bust scenarios more likely than most people are comfortable with.
